Davis Canned. Now What?

Late Tuesday evening, the University of North Carolina announced a leadership change in its

men’s basketball program. In other words, Coach Hubert Davis was fired.

As was explained here last week after the collapse to VCU in the First Round of the NCAA

tournament, it was likely going to end this way. Now that it has, now what?

It’s Been Awhile

North Carolina last hired a basketball coach from outside the Carolina family 74 years ago when it hired Frank McGuire from St. John’s in 1952. Dean Smith was an assistant to McGuire and was promoted to head coach in 1961. Bill Guthridge was an assistant to Smith and was promoted to head coach in 1997. Matt Doherty played for Dean Smith and was an assistant to Roy Williams at Kansas before being hired at Carolina in 2000. Roy Williams went to UNC and was an assistant to Smith prior to going to Kansas and then returning to Carolina in 2003. Davis was an assistant to Williams and was promoted to head coach in 2021.

It has been a long time since the Tar Heel community has gone through a real, legitimate

coaching search. The average life expectancy of an American male is about 75 years. So this is legitimately a once in a lifetime job opening.

The Search Committee

Per UNC, the search committee of soon-to-be outgoing UNC Athletic Director Bubba

Cunningham, soon-to-be Athletic Director Steve Newmark and the search firm Turnkey ZRG will be conducting the search for a new coach. Given the lack of choices inside the Carolina family at present, all expectations are the next Carolina coach will have no prior connections to North Carolina basketball. Again, a once in a lifetime job opening for any prospective coach in the country.

But who will UNC ultimately hire? I’m glad you asked. Let’s take a look.

Never Gonna Happen Candidates

Let’s begin by getting the pie-in-the-sky candidates out of the way that are not coming to North Carolina.

Brad Stevens. Stevens is the President of Basketball Operations and General Manager of the

Boston Celtics. Nothing more needs to be said.

Jay Wright. Wright got out of college coaching for similar reasons that a lot of the old guard

coaches got out – they don’t want to deal NIL, the transfer portal, and annual free agency in

college. All sources indicate he is happy in retirement.

Dan Hurley. Hurley is currently the head coach at UConn. Having recently won back-to-back

national titles in Storrs and being a northeastern guy, I do not ever see Hurley a candidate at

Carolina nor aligned with what is expected of a head coach in Chapel Hill.

A Slim Chance

These options have a chance of accepting the job if offered, but I believe it is a long-shot that they would accept.

Dusty May. May is currently the head coach at Michigan and a legit contender to win the

national title this year. Jon Rothstein reports that his buyout at Michigan is $7.5million, which is not prohibitive, but I do not see May leaving Ann Arbor after just two seasons and the ability to compete at the highest level in the sport at Michigan. He’ll have all the resources he needs in the rich BigTen with the football money.

Tommy Lloyd. Lloyd is currently the head coach at Arizona and another legit contender to win the national title this year. Rothstein reports his buyout at Arizona is $11million, so this is a bigger impediment than May’s buyout is at Michigan. But again, Tucson is an awesome place to live. I’ve visited there and hope to visit again someday. He has the resources at Arizona to win a national title. It would be very difficult to pry Lloyd away from Arizona.

Billy Donovan. Donovan is currently the head coach of the Chicago Bulls. There is chatter that he may be open to leaving the NBA now after over a decade in the association. He won two national titles at Florida in 2006 and 2007 before leaving for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2015. He has been in Chicago since 2020. Would he want to return to college now that he’s been away from it for so long? The college game is radically different now than it was when he was at Florida. I do not think that it’s likely the 60-year-old would return to college at this point in his career.

Other Names UNC Likely Will Not Consider

There are other potential names on coaching boards that I do not believe Carolina will seriously consider and they include:

Nate Oats. Oats is currently the head coach at Alabama. His name is showing up on boards, but I do not see Carolina going in this direction for a couple of reasons. Firstly, his buyout from Alabama prior to April 1 st is $18million, but as of April 1 st it drops to $10million per Rothstein. That’s a lot of cash. Secondly, the off the court issues in Tuscaloosa with players and the law and the “wrong place, wrong time” explanation will not endear him to many decisionmakers in Chapel Hill. I do not see a path here for Oats.

Todd Golden. Golden is currently the head coach at Florida and is coming off of winning a

national title last season. Golden’s buyout at Florida is $16million. Again, that’s a lot of money to buy a coach away. Also, the Title IX allegations that triggered an investigation that ultimately Florida decided was not evidenced from the investigation still lingers. Carolina is guarded when it comes to its brand, and I do not see this being a viable option with the decisionmakers, especially after the PR hits from the Bill Belichick saga.

Most Likely to Be Offered and Accept the Job

The candidates below are the mostly likely candidates to be offered and to accept the job if

offered in my opinion. Neither of them is a sexy hire and may not win the press conference, but both are very good coaches. The search should go no further than the last name on this list.

T.J. Otzelberger. Otzelberger is currently the head coach at Iowa State. The Cyclones are still in the NCAA tournament, so Carolina would have to wait until their season is finished before Otzelberger would discuss the job. His buyout from Iowa State is $4million per Rothstein, so a much more manageable figure than other coaches listed above. Otzelberger is a midwestern guy, however the opportunity to move from Iowa State to North Carolina would likely be too much for him to turn down. I would keep my eye on Otzelberger if I’m a North Carolina fan.

Mark Byington. Byington is currently the head coach at Vanderbilt. Given Vanderbilt is a private school, we do not know for certain the buyout figure. Byington went to college at UNC- Wilmington and spent time as an assistant at College of Charleston. He was head coach at James Madison prior to going to Vandy. Given his time spent in the Carolinas and Virginia, he is familiar with the region geographically. If I were a North Carolina fan, I would do some research on Byington. As stated, he may not be a flashy hire, but he is a good basketball coach. Don’t be surprised if things end here should all the other names above turn the job down.

Now, We Wait

It’s possible one of the coaches open to accepting the job will play through the national

championship game on April 6 th . Remember that Roy Williams coached Kansas through the national title game in 2003 before agreeing to go to UNC a week later. So this process could take a couple of weeks, or more, to play out. But this is a 10+ year decision. This decision merits deliberation and turning over every stone of every potential candidate out there to return Carolina basketball to historical standard.

The waiting game will be tiresome, but if Carolina hires a great coach, Tar Heel fans will be

more than happy to wait a few days until the right coach is hired.